Optimal rainfall threshold for monsoon rice production in India varies across space and time
Source
Communications Earth and Environment
Date Issued
2024-12-01
Author(s)
Maiti, Arabinda
Hasan, Md Kamrul
Sannigrahi, Srikanta
Bar, Somnath
Chakraborti, Suman
Mahto, Shanti Shwarup
Chatterjee, Sumanta
Pramanik, Suvamoy
Pilla, Francesco
Auerbach, Jeremy
Sonnentag, Oliver
Song, Conghe
Zhang, Qi
Abstract
Climate change affects Indian agriculture, which depends heavily on the spatiotemporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. Despite the nonlinear relationship between crop yield and rainfall, little is known about the optimal rainfall threshold, particularly for monsoon rice. Here, we investigate the responses of rice yield to monsoon rainfall in India by analyzing historical rice production statistics and climate data from 1990 to 2017. Results show that excessive and deficit rainfall reduces rice yield by 33.7% and 19%, respectively. The overall optimal rainfall threshold nationwide is 1621 ± 34 mm beyond which rice yield declines by 6.4 kg per hectare per 100 mm of rainfall, while the identifiable thresholds vary spatially across 14 states. The temporal variations in rice yield are influenced by rainfall anomalies featured by El Niño-Southern Oscillation events.